| venue | ATL | WSH | line | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 57.5c | 42.5c | ask 58.0c | 08:25Z |
| Kalshi ↗ | 57.5c | 42.5c | ask 58.0c | 08:25Z |
| Pinnacle ↗ | 57.0c | 43.0c | -140 / +127 | 08:25Z |
| DK · ESPN ↗ | 57.3c | 42.7c | -150 / +124 | 08:25Z |
| Bovada ↗ | 57.0c▲0.8 | 43.0c▼0.8 | -147 / +123 | 08:25Z |
| BetRivers ↗ | 57.2c | 42.8c | -147 / +125 | 08:25Z |
P(ATL wins) over time, by venue
At first pitch: 88°F, wind 8 mph from the NW (gusts 11), 0% chance of precipitation.
| hour (UTC) | temp | wind | gusts | precip | humidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | 90°F | 8 mph WNW | 11 | 0% | 39% |
| 22:00 | 89°F | 9 mph NW | 12 | 0% | 31% |
| 23:00game | 88°F | 8 mph NW | 11 | 0% | 34% |
| 00:00game | 85°F | 6 mph NNW | 12 | 0% | 36% |
| 01:00game | 80°F | 5 mph N | 9 | 0% | 40% |
| 02:00game | 77°F | 5 mph NNW | 14 | 0% | 46% |
| 03:00game | 75°F | 5 mph N |
One row per priced side at each venue's main line. Exchange spreads come from Polymarket's spread markets; book prices are de-vigged within the pair.
| venue | side | line | prob | odds | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | ATL | -1.5 | 40.5c | — | 08:25Z |
| WSH | -1.5 | 32.5c | — | 08:25Z | |
| Pinnacle ↗ | ATL | -1.5 | 40.6c | +139 | 08:25Z |
| WSH | +1.5 | 59.4c | -158 | 08:25Z | |
| Bovada ↗ | ATL | -1.5 | 40.9c | +135 | 08:25Z |
Each venue's main total — the line trading closest to a coin flip. The chart tracks the line itself moving (e.g. 8.5 → 9), which is where game-level information shows up first.
| venue | side | line | prob | odds | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | over | 9.5 | 51.5c | — | 08:25Z |
| Kalshi ↗ | over | 9.5 | 51.0c | — | 08:25Z |
| Pinnacle ↗ | over | 9.5 | 50.7c | -110 | 08:25Z |
| under | 9.5 | 49.3c | -104 | 08:25Z | |
| DK · ESPN ↗ |
| 13 |
| 0% |
| 51% |
| 04:00 | 73°F | 4 mph N | 11 | 0% | 58% |
| 05:00 | 71°F | 4 mph N | 11 | 0% | 66% |
Hourly forecast, refreshed with the capture cron — weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).
| WSH |
| +1.5 |
| 59.1c |
| -160 |
| 08:25Z |
| BetRivers ↗ | ATL | -1.5 | 39.7c | +140 | 08:25Z |
| WSH | +1.5 | 60.3c | -172 | 08:25Z |
ATL line (points) over time, by venue
| over |
| 9.5 |
| 51.5c |
| -117 |
| 08:25Z |
| under | 9.5 | 48.5c | -103 | 08:25Z |
| Bovada ↗ | over | 9.5 | 51.1c | -115 | 08:25Z |
| under | 9.5 | 48.9c | -105 | 08:25Z |
| BetRivers ↗ | over | 9.5 | 50.1c | -110 | 08:25Z |
| under | 9.5 | 49.9c | -109 | 08:25Z |
Total (points) over time, by venue
ATL
66–43 · .606
WSH
53–56 · .486
Run figures rather than team ERA and OPS: innings pitched and slugging do not survive the publish step, so those two are not computable here and a proxy under their name would be worse than their absence.
ATL 4–3 WSH
+2 earlier meetings in the record.
A fantasy app would put a projected line on every row here. This one does not have a projection worth printing: the form and head-to-head features on this page were tested as model inputs against the market and came back null, with weights that flipped sign between refits.
So they stay what they honestly are — context for reading tonight, not a forecast. The record of that test is in the research log.
Bars are hits per game over the team's last ten — a hairline is a game this batter did not appear in, never an estimate and never a gap in the sequence. L10 comes from the same rolling primitives the models backtest with, so a batter under the window minimum shows a gap rather than a guess.
Bars are hits per game over the team's last ten — a hairline is a game this batter did not appear in, never an estimate and never a gap in the sequence. L10 comes from the same rolling primitives the models backtest with, so a batter under the window minimum shows a gap rather than a guess.
