Every upcoming NHL fixture on Polymarket and every forecastable market on it — the whole board, uncapped. Keyless, live, cached a few minutes. A market is tradeable when its spread is ≤ 5¢ and ≥ $100 sits within 2¢ of the ask.
No forecastable NHL markets are open right now — an off-season or between-slate window, not an error. The historical record below is unaffected.
Every resolved NHLmarket the favorite-longshot backtest could reconstruct point-in-time from Polymarket's price history: 3,607 markets across 512 fixtures. The question is whether the market itself is mispriced — buy every favorite and win. It isn't, and you don't.
Each bucket: what the market charged, versus how often it actually happened. The gap averages 0.86c — the price is the probability.
| market price | n | actually won | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.171 | 27 | 0.185 | +0.015 |
| 0.263 | 598 | 0.264 | +0.001 |
| 0.403 | 1,564 | 0.396 | −0.007 |
| 0.563 | 918 | 0.576 | +0.013 |
| 0.780 | 469 | 0.793 | +0.013 |
| 0.870 | 24 | 0.917 | +0.047 |
Buy every favorite priced ≥ 70c, net of ~2c cost, significance clustered by fixture. In NHL moneylines it comes to too few high-priced favorites to test honestly — across all market types, −0.74c (t = 0.65). Null after cost — no free structural edge here either.
| market type | bets | fixtures | net edge | t (clustered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | — | — | — | — |
| Totals | 489 | 383 | −0.82c | 0.60 |
| Both teams to score | — | — | — | — |
| Spread | — | — | — | — |
| All types | 493 | 384 | −0.74c | 0.65 |
“—” means fewer than 8 favorites of that type — too thin to test. A real edge would need net > 0 andt > ~2.5 in a type that isn't just near-certain totals, and would have to survive out-of-sample.
