Pigglet — we built models to beat markets. They don't.

NFL — live board

Every upcoming NFL fixture on Polymarket and every forecastable market on it — the whole board, no per-fixture cap. Keyless, live, cached a few minutes. A market is tradeable when its spread is ≤ 5¢ and ≥ $100 sits within 2¢ of the ask.

2 fixtures · 125 markets · 87 tradeable (70%). Measured Sep 13, 04:13 PM UTC.

Cowboys vs. Giants

Sep 14, 12:20 AM UTC

MoneylineYes 61¢No 40¢

TotalsO/U 50.5Yes 41¢No 60¢

TotalsO/U 52.5Yes 37¢No 66¢

TotalsO/U 45.5Yes 57¢No 45¢

TotalsO/U 48.5Yes 46¢No 55¢

TotalsO/U 30.5Yes 93¢No 9¢

TotalsO/U 47.5Yes 50¢No 51¢

TotalsO/U 28.5Yes 96¢No 9¢

TotalsO/U 32.5Yes 92¢No 13¢

TotalsO/U 34.5Yes 87¢No 18¢

TotalsO/U 36.5Yes 83¢No 20¢

TotalsO/U 38.5Yes 79¢No 25¢

TotalsO/U 40.5Yes 71¢No 30¢

TotalsO/U 44.5Yes 60¢No 42¢

TotalsO/U 42.5Yes 66¢No 36¢

TotalsO/U 54.5Yes 31¢No 70¢

TotalsO/U 46.5Yes 54¢No 48¢

TotalsO/U 56.5Yes 27¢No 77¢

TotalsO/U 58.5Yes 24¢No 82¢

TotalsO/U 60.5Yes 19¢No 83¢

TotalsO/U 64.5Yes 14¢No 91¢

TotalsO/U 68.5Yes 8¢No 96¢

TotalsO/U 66.5Yes 9¢No 92¢

TotalsO/U 62.5Yes 16¢No 88¢

TotalsO/U 51.5Yes 38¢No 64¢

TotalsO/U 49.5Yes 44¢No 57¢

TotalsO/U 24.5Yes 99¢No 6¢

TotalsO/U 26.5Yes 96¢No 8¢

Spread -1.5Yes 58¢No 43¢

Spread -4.5Yes 43¢No 58¢

Spread -3.5Yes 46¢No 55¢

Spread -2.5Yes 56¢No 45¢

Spread -0.5Yes 61¢No 41¢

Spread -5.5Yes 41¢No 61¢

Spread -6.5Yes 38¢No 63¢

Spread -7.5Yes 33¢No 69¢

Spread -8.5Yes 30¢No 71¢

Spread -9.5Yes 29¢No 73¢

Spread -13.5Yes 22¢No 81¢

Spread -10.5Yes 26¢No 76¢

Spread -14.5Yes 18¢No 84¢

Spread -16.5Yes 16¢No 86¢

Spread -17.5Yes 15¢No 88¢

Spread -19.5Yes 11¢No 94¢

Spread -20.5Yes 11¢No 92¢

Spread -21.5Yes 8¢No 94¢

Spread -2.5Yes 36¢No 66¢

Spread -3.5Yes 29¢No 72¢

Spread -1.5Yes 39¢No 63¢

Spread -4.5Yes 28¢No 75¢

Spread -5.5Yes 26¢No 77¢

Spread -6.5Yes 23¢No 79¢

Spread -8.5Yes 18¢No 87¢

Spread -7.5Yes 19¢No 84¢

Spread -10.5Yes 14¢No 88¢

Spread -9.5Yes 17¢No 86¢

Spread -13.5Yes 11¢No 91¢

Spread -14.5Yes 10¢No 93¢

Spread -16.5Yes 8¢No 97¢

Spread -17.5Yes 7¢No 98¢

Spread -19.5Yes 9¢No 99¢

Spread -20.5Yes 8¢No 99¢

Spread -21.5Yes 5¢No 99¢

$1379.8k within 2¢50/63 tradeable

Broncos vs. Chiefs

Sep 15, 12:15 AM UTC

MoneylineYes 44¢No 57¢

TotalsO/U 41.5Yes 56¢No 45¢

TotalsO/U 43.5Yes 51¢No 50¢

TotalsO/U 44.5Yes 46¢No 55¢

TotalsO/U 46.5Yes 40¢

Historical — the resolved-market record

Every resolved NFLmarket the favorite-longshot backtest could reconstruct point-in-time from Polymarket's price history: 2,679 markets across 580 fixtures. The question is whether the market itself is mispriced — buy every favorite and win. It isn't, and you don't.

Calibration — is the price the probability?

Each bucket: what the market charged, versus how often it actually happened. The gap averages 2.62c — the price is the probability.

market price	n	actually won	gap
0.153	53	0.094	−0.059
0.257	147	0.231	−0.025
0.438	1,285	0.456	+0.018
0.555	1,081	0.586	+0.030
0.749	98	0.673	−0.076

Back the favorite — the one rumoured edge

Buy every favorite priced ≥ 70c, net of ~2c cost, significance clustered by fixture. In NFL moneylines it comes to −5.61c per $1 (t = -0.75). Negative after cost, and nowhere near significant — no free structural edge.

Everything here is generated from public market data and provided for information only. It is not betting advice, not a recommendation to wager, and not a claim that any edge exists. Live prices move; the snapshot is minutes old by the time you read it.

market type	bets	fixtures	net edge	t (clustered)
Moneyline	88	84	−5.61c	-0.75
Totals	—	—	—	—
Both teams to score	—	—	—	—
Spread	14	11	−32.39c	-1.89
All types	104	94	−7.42c	-1.17