Every upcoming Soccer fixture on Polymarket and every forecastable market on it — the whole board, uncapped. Keyless, live, cached a few minutes. A market is tradeable when its spread is ≤ 5¢ and ≥ $100 sits within 2¢ of the ask.
33 fixtures · 237 markets · 199 tradeable (84%). Measured Jul 30, 02:22 PM UTC.
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 65¢ / 77¢ | 12¢ | $318 | thin |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 81¢ / 86¢ | 5¢ | $277 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 95¢ / 98¢ | 3¢ | $11.0k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 53¢ / 56¢ | 3¢ | $35 | thin |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 13¢ / 15¢ | 2¢ | $20 | thin |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 8¢ / 29¢ | 21¢ | $66 | thin |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 18¢ / 68¢ | 50¢ | $3 | thin |
| SpreadAFC Bournemouth (-1.5) | 18¢ / 74¢ | 56¢ | $340 | thin |
| SpreadFC Augsburg (-1.5) | 15¢ / 31¢ | 16¢ | $2 | thin |
| SpreadFC Augsburg (-2.5) | 1¢ / 6¢ | 5¢ | $6 | thin |
| SpreadAFC Bournemouth (-2.5) | 17¢ / 92¢ | 75¢ | $13 | thin |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineParma Calcio | 51¢ / 53¢ | 2¢ | $1.4k | tradeable |
| MoneylineSS Arezzo | 21¢ / 22¢ | 1¢ | $407 | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (Parma Calcio vs. SS Arezzo) | 25¢ / 27¢ | 2¢ | $2.2k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineAFC Bournemouth | 62¢ / 81¢ | 19¢ | $413 | thin |
| MoneylineDraw (AFC Bournemouth vs. FC Augsburg) | 15¢ / 21¢ | 6¢ | $458 | thin |
| MoneylineFC Augsburg | 5¢ / 32¢ | 27¢ | $2.0k | thin |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 13¢ / 14¢ | 1¢ | $286 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 29¢ / 30¢ | 1¢ | $1.0k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 92¢ / 94¢ | 2¢ | $4.3k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 50¢ / 51¢ |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineFC Inter Turku | 20¢ / 21¢ | 1¢ | $5.1k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (FC Inter Turku vs. Rams Başakşehir FK) | 24¢ / 25¢ | 1¢ | $5.5k | tradeable |
| MoneylineRams Başakşehir FK | 54¢ / 55¢ | 1¢ | $11.9k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 92¢ / 94¢ | 2¢ | $9.5k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 76¢ / 77¢ | 1¢ | $5.8k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 51¢ / 53¢ | 2¢ | $2.1k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 98¢ / 100¢ | 2¢ | $1.2k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 98¢ / 100¢ | 2¢ | $1.0k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 94¢ / 99¢ | 5¢ | $70 | thin |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 88¢ / 97¢ | 10¢ |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineFK Jablonec | 57¢ / 58¢ | 1¢ | $6.9k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (FK Jablonec vs. NK Varaždin) | 24¢ / 25¢ | 1¢ | $6.1k | tradeable |
| MoneylineNK Varaždin | 17¢ / 19¢ | 2¢ | $2.3k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineFC Rottach-Egern | 0¢ / 1¢ | 0¢ | $35 | thin |
| MoneylineBayern Munich | 99¢ / 99¢ | 0¢ | $1.3k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (FC Rottach-Egern vs. Bayern Munich) | 1¢ / 1¢ | 0¢ | $122 | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineDraw (AC Monza vs. Aris Thessaloniki) | 26¢ / 27¢ | 1¢ | $374 | tradeable |
| MoneylineAris Thessaloniki | 24¢ / 25¢ | 1¢ | $1.2k | tradeable |
| MoneylineAC Monza | 49¢ / 50¢ | 1¢ | $897 | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 57¢ / 58¢ | 1¢ | $3.0k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 95¢ / 96¢ | 1¢ | $102.5k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 79¢ / 80¢ | 1¢ | $3.9k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 85¢ / 88¢ | 3¢ | $2.1k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 96¢ / 99¢ | 3¢ | $8.4k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 68¢ / 70¢ | 2¢ | $17 | thin |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 46¢ / 49¢ | 3¢ |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineZirə FK | 79¢ / 80¢ | 1¢ | $11.9k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (Zirə FK vs. Paide Linnameeskond) | 14¢ / 15¢ | 1¢ | $2.4k | tradeable |
| MoneylinePaide Linnameeskond | 5¢ / 6¢ | 1¢ | $751 | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineIlves Tampere | 56¢ / 57¢ | 1¢ | $6.1k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan) | 23¢ / 24¢ | 1¢ | $2.9k | tradeable |
| MoneylineUMF Stjarnan | 20¢ / 21¢ | 1¢ | $5.0k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineFC Zimbru Chişinău | 7¢ / 8¢ | 1¢ | $1.1k | tradeable |
| MoneylineNoah FA | 76¢ / 77¢ | 1¢ | $5.7k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (Noah FA vs. FC Zimbru Chişinău) | 16¢ / 17¢ | 1¢ | $2.7k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylinePyunik FA | 45¢ / 46¢ | 1¢ | $14.5k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (Pyunik FA vs. Debreceni VSC) | 28¢ / 29¢ | 1¢ | $6.1k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDebreceni VSC | 25¢ / 26¢ | 1¢ | $3.4k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 70¢ / 71¢ | 1¢ | $1.7k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 45¢ / 46¢ | 1¢ | $7.6k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 23¢ / 24¢ | 1¢ | $2.1k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 9¢ / 11¢ |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 95¢ / 96¢ | 1¢ | $72.8k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 82¢ / 83¢ | 1¢ | $17.5k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 61¢ / 62¢ | 1¢ | $33.7k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineNõmme Kalju FC | 27¢ / 28¢ | 1¢ | $2.0k | tradeable |
| MoneylineShelbourne FC | 45¢ / 46¢ | 1¢ | $1.9k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (Nõmme Kalju FC vs. Shelbourne FC) | 25¢ / 26¢ | 1¢ | $1.3k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineFK Auda | 16¢ / 17¢ | 1¢ | $3.0k | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (FK Auda vs. FCSB) | 22¢ / 23¢ | 1¢ | $5.3k | tradeable |
| MoneylineFCSB | 60¢ / 61¢ | 1¢ | $13.2k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 94¢ / 96¢ | 2¢ | $97.8k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 78¢ / 79¢ | 1¢ | $4.8k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 55¢ / 56¢ | 1¢ | $5.9k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 32¢ / 33¢ |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 94¢ / 95¢ | 1¢ | $19.7k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 79¢ / 80¢ | 1¢ | $12.1k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 56¢ / 57¢ | 1¢ | $11.2k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 94¢ / 96¢ | 2¢ | $60.5k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 79¢ / 80¢ | 1¢ | $4.6k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 56¢ / 57¢ | 1¢ | $9.6k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 33¢ / 34¢ |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 95¢ / 97¢ | 2¢ | $58.2k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 81¢ / 82¢ | 1¢ | $4.8k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 36¢ / 37¢ | 1¢ | $1.2k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 93¢ / 95¢ | 2¢ | $40.7k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 55¢ / 56¢ | 1¢ | $13.0k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 77¢ / 78¢ | 1¢ | $5.4k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 78¢ / 79¢ | 1¢ | $9.3k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 95¢ / 96¢ | 1¢ | $81.9k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 54¢ / 55¢ | 1¢ | $6.9k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineOlympique Marseille | 79¢ / 81¢ | 2¢ | $829 | tradeable |
| MoneylineDraw (Olympique Marseille vs. Nimes Olympique) | 10¢ / 14¢ | 4¢ | $205 | tradeable |
| MoneylineNimes Olympique | 6¢ / 8¢ | 2¢ | $94 | thin |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineDraw (MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol) | 16¢ / 17¢ | 1¢ | $3.9k | tradeable |
| MoneylineMH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 72¢ / 73¢ | 1¢ | $52.1k | tradeable |
| MoneylineFC Sheriff Tiraspol | 10¢ / 11¢ | 1¢ | $4.3k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineDraw (FCI Levadia vs. IFK Göteborg) | 24¢ / 25¢ | 1¢ | $1.6k | tradeable |
| MoneylineFCI Levadia | 30¢ / 31¢ | 1¢ | $1.7k | tradeable |
| MoneylineIFK Göteborg | 44¢ / 45¢ | 1¢ | $5.6k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 95¢ / 97¢ | 2¢ | $319.3k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 81¢ / 82¢ | 1¢ | $5.2k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 60¢ / 61¢ | 1¢ | $4.9k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 37¢ / 38¢ |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoneylineDraw (FK Dynama-Minsk vs. Neftçi PFK) | 27¢ / 28¢ | 1¢ | $1.2k | tradeable |
| MoneylineFK Dynama-Minsk | 32¢ / 33¢ | 1¢ | $7.2k | tradeable |
| MoneylineNeftçi PFK | 39¢ / 40¢ | 1¢ | $3.0k | tradeable |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 93¢ / 94¢ | 1¢ | $20.6k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 75¢ / 76¢ | 1¢ | $17.2k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 28¢ / 29¢ | 1¢ | $863 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 |
| market | bid / ask | spread | depth/2¢ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 75¢ / 76¢ | 1¢ | $39.0k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 93¢ / 94¢ | 1¢ | $39.6k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 50¢ / 51¢ | 1¢ | $16.1k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 |
Every resolved Soccermarket the favorite-longshot backtest could reconstruct point-in-time from Polymarket's price history: 4,270 markets across 308 fixtures. The question is whether the market itself is mispriced — buy every favorite and win. It isn't, and you don't.
Each bucket: what the market charged, versus how often it actually happened. The gap averages 1.18c — the price is the probability.
| market price | n | actually won | gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.044 | 1,149 | 0.029 | −0.015 |
| 0.148 | 629 | 0.143 | −0.005 |
| 0.246 | 636 | 0.222 | −0.025 |
| 0.397 | 730 | 0.400 | +0.003 |
| 0.590 | 555 | 0.584 | −0.006 |
| 0.770 | 240 | 0.804 | +0.034 |
| 1¢ |
| $1.8k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 6¢ / 7¢ | 1¢ | $143 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 1.5 | 74¢ / 76¢ | 2¢ | $2.3k | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 52¢ / 54¢ | 2¢ | $1.1k | tradeable |
| SpreadParma Calcio (-1.5) | 26¢ / 28¢ | 2¢ | $475 | tradeable |
| SpreadParma Calcio (-2.5) | 11¢ / 14¢ | 3¢ | $209 | tradeable |
| SpreadSS Arezzo (-1.5) | 7¢ / 9¢ | 2¢ | $115 | tradeable |
| SpreadSS Arezzo (-2.5) | 1¢ / 3¢ | 2¢ | $53 | thin |
| 30¢ / 31¢ |
| 1¢ |
| $599 |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 6¢ / 7¢ | 1¢ | $150 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 13¢ / 16¢ | 3¢ | $388 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 6.5 | 1¢ / 4¢ | 3¢ | $40 | thin |
| TotalsO/U 7.5 | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ | $2 | thin |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 55¢ / 58¢ | 3¢ | $2.2k | tradeable |
| SpreadAC Monza (-1.5) | 23¢ / 28¢ | 5¢ | $543 | thin |
| SpreadAC Monza (-2.5) | 9¢ / 12¢ | 3¢ | $180 | tradeable |
| SpreadAris Thessaloniki (-1.5) | 9¢ / 11¢ | 2¢ | $146 | tradeable |
| SpreadAris Thessaloniki (-2.5) | 1¢ / 4¢ | 3¢ | $48 | thin |
| $144 |
| thin |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 96¢ / 97¢ | 1¢ | $42 | thin |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 89¢ / 91¢ | 2¢ | $20 | thin |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 12¢ / 69¢ | 57¢ | $6.2k | thin |
| SpreadFC Rottach-Egern (-1.5) | 0¢ / 2¢ | 2¢ | $135 | tradeable |
| SpreadBayern Munich (-1.5) | 95¢ / 99¢ | 4¢ | $181 | tradeable |
| SpreadFC Rottach-Egern (-2.5) | 0¢ / 2¢ | 2¢ | $135 | tradeable |
| SpreadBayern Munich (-2.5) | 94¢ / 97¢ | 3¢ | $9.6k | tradeable |
| 33¢ / 34¢ |
| 1¢ |
| $1.1k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 16¢ / 18¢ | 2¢ | $1.6k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 7¢ / 8¢ | 1¢ | $250 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 42¢ / 43¢ | 1¢ | $923 | tradeable |
| SpreadNoah FA (-1.5) | 53¢ / 54¢ | 1¢ | $2.4k | tradeable |
| SpreadNoah FA (-2.5) | 29¢ / 31¢ | 2¢ | $2.6k | tradeable |
| SpreadFC Zimbru Chişinău (-1.5) | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ | $97 | thin |
| SpreadFC Zimbru Chişinău (-2.5) | 0¢ / 1¢ | 1¢ | $30 | thin |
| $537 |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 13¢ / 18¢ | 5¢ | $52 | thin |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 28¢ / 33¢ | 5¢ | $141 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 46¢ / 52¢ | 6¢ | $208 | thin |
| SpreadOlympique Marseille (-1.5) | 59¢ / 63¢ | 4¢ | $158 | tradeable |
| SpreadNimes Olympique (-1.5) | 1¢ / 4¢ | 3¢ | $12 | thin |
| SpreadOlympique Marseille (-2.5) | 37¢ / 42¢ | 5¢ | $95 | thin |
| SpreadNimes Olympique (-2.5) | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ | $7 | thin |
| 2¢ |
| $2.4k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 3¢ / 4¢ | 1¢ | $587 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 0.5 | 91¢ / 93¢ | 2¢ | $28.5k | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 50¢ / 53¢ | 3¢ | $11.7k | tradeable |
| SpreadPyunik FA (-1.5) | 20¢ / 22¢ | 2¢ | $1.4k | tradeable |
| SpreadPyunik FA (-2.5) | 7¢ / 9¢ | 2¢ | $193 | tradeable |
| SpreadDebreceni VSC (-1.5) | 8¢ / 10¢ | 2¢ | $1.0k | tradeable |
| SpreadDebreceni VSC (-2.5) | 2¢ / 3¢ | 1¢ | $91 | thin |
| 38¢ / 40¢ |
| 2¢ |
| $10.9k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 21¢ / 22¢ | 1¢ | $6.0k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 9¢ / 10¢ | 1¢ | $526 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 49¢ / 50¢ | 1¢ | $12.7k | tradeable |
| SpreadMH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 49¢ / 51¢ | 2¢ | $11.8k | tradeable |
| SpreadFC Sheriff Tiraspol (-1.5) | 2¢ / 3¢ | 1¢ | $517 | tradeable |
| SpreadMH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 27¢ / 29¢ | 2¢ | $3.6k | tradeable |
| SpreadFC Sheriff Tiraspol (-2.5) | 1¢ / 1¢ | 1¢ | $459 | tradeable |
| 1¢ |
| $665 |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 16¢ / 17¢ | 1¢ | $497 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 6¢ / 7¢ | 1¢ | $313 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 55¢ / 56¢ | 1¢ | $4.2k | tradeable |
| SpreadNK Varaždin (-1.5) | 5¢ / 7¢ | 2¢ | $331 | tradeable |
| SpreadFK Jablonec (-1.5) | 32¢ / 34¢ | 2¢ | $2.3k | tradeable |
| SpreadFK Jablonec (-2.5) | 15¢ / 16¢ | 1¢ | $547 | tradeable |
| SpreadNK Varaždin (-2.5) | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ | $80 | thin |
| 33¢ / 34¢ |
| 1¢ |
| $4.7k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 16¢ / 18¢ | 2¢ | $672 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 7¢ / 8¢ | 1¢ | $786 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 58¢ / 60¢ | 2¢ | $7.1k | tradeable |
| SpreadNõmme Kalju FC (-1.5) | 11¢ / 12¢ | 1¢ | $310 | tradeable |
| SpreadShelbourne FC (-1.5) | 23¢ / 24¢ | 1¢ | $674 | tradeable |
| SpreadNõmme Kalju FC (-2.5) | 3¢ / 4¢ | 1¢ | $114 | tradeable |
| SpreadShelbourne FC (-2.5) | 9¢ / 11¢ | 2¢ | $341 | tradeable |
| 1¢ |
| $1.5k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 17¢ / 18¢ | 1¢ | $841 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 7¢ / 8¢ | 1¢ | $300 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 54¢ / 55¢ | 1¢ | $1.5k | tradeable |
| SpreadFK Auda (-1.5) | 5¢ / 7¢ | 2¢ | $206 | tradeable |
| SpreadFCSB (-1.5) | 34¢ / 36¢ | 2¢ | $1.6k | tradeable |
| SpreadFCSB (-2.5) | 18¢ / 19¢ | 1¢ | $991 | tradeable |
| SpreadFK Auda (-2.5) | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ | $79 | thin |
| 18¢ / 20¢ |
| 2¢ |
| $1.1k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 2.5 | 59¢ / 60¢ | 1¢ | $6.7k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 7¢ / 9¢ | 2¢ | $334 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 58¢ / 61¢ | 3¢ | $6.0k | tradeable |
| SpreadIlves Tampere (-1.5) | 32¢ / 33¢ | 1¢ | $3.1k | tradeable |
| SpreadUMF Stjarnan (-1.5) | 6¢ / 8¢ | 2¢ | $425 | tradeable |
| SpreadIlves Tampere (-2.5) | 14¢ / 16¢ | 2¢ | $3.4k | tradeable |
| SpreadUMF Stjarnan (-2.5) | 1¢ / 3¢ | 2¢ | $102 | tradeable |
| 31¢ / 32¢ |
| 1¢ |
| $1.3k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 14¢ / 16¢ | 2¢ | $528 | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 6¢ / 7¢ | 1¢ | $204 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 55¢ / 56¢ | 1¢ | $4.8k | tradeable |
| SpreadFC Inter Turku (-1.5) | 6¢ / 8¢ | 2¢ | $1.2k | tradeable |
| SpreadRams Başakşehir FK (-1.5) | 30¢ / 31¢ | 1¢ | $2.7k | tradeable |
| SpreadRams Başakşehir FK (-2.5) | 13¢ / 14¢ | 1¢ | $446 | tradeable |
| SpreadFC Inter Turku (-2.5) | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ | $132 | tradeable |
| 5¢ / 7¢ |
| 2¢ |
| $659 |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 3.5 | 31¢ / 32¢ | 1¢ | $1.3k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 15¢ / 16¢ | 1¢ | $672 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 35¢ / 38¢ | 3¢ | $8.7k | tradeable |
| SpreadPaide Linnameeskond (-2.5) | 0¢ / 1¢ | 1¢ | $29 | thin |
| SpreadPaide Linnameeskond (-1.5) | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ | $76 | thin |
| SpreadZirə FK (-2.5) | 30¢ / 32¢ | 2¢ | $1.1k | tradeable |
| SpreadZirə FK (-1.5) | 55¢ / 56¢ | 1¢ | $2.9k | tradeable |
| 1¢ |
| $955 |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 19¢ / 21¢ | 2¢ | $1.3k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 8¢ / 10¢ | 2¢ | $279 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 61¢ / 64¢ | 3¢ | $1.1k | tradeable |
| SpreadFCI Levadia (-1.5) | 13¢ / 15¢ | 2¢ | $431 | tradeable |
| SpreadIFK Göteborg (-1.5) | 22¢ / 24¢ | 2¢ | $1.1k | tradeable |
| SpreadIFK Göteborg (-2.5) | 9¢ / 11¢ | 2¢ | $262 | tradeable |
| SpreadFCI Levadia (-2.5) | 5¢ / 6¢ | 0¢ | $76 | thin |
| 51¢ / 52¢ |
| 1¢ |
| $20.0k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 5¢ / 6¢ | 1¢ | $1.6k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 13¢ / 14¢ | 1¢ | $2.1k | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 54¢ / 57¢ | 3¢ | $3.6k | tradeable |
| SpreadFC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 11¢ / 13¢ | 2¢ | $2.0k | tradeable |
| SpreadTromsø IL (-1.5) | 20¢ / 21¢ | 1¢ | $923 | tradeable |
| SpreadFC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 3¢ / 4¢ | 1¢ | $195 | tradeable |
| SpreadTromsø IL (-2.5) | 7¢ / 9¢ | 2¢ | $2.9k | tradeable |
| 27¢ / 28¢ |
| 1¢ |
| $1.5k |
tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 4.5 | 12¢ / 13¢ | 1¢ | $2.1k | tradeable |
| TotalsO/U 5.5 | 4¢ / 5¢ | 1¢ | $340 | tradeable |
| Both teams to scoreBoth Teams to Score | 51¢ / 52¢ | 1¢ | $8.8k | tradeable |
| SpreadPáfos FC (-1.5) | 30¢ / 31¢ | 1¢ | $10.7k | tradeable |
| SpreadHNK Hajduk Split (-1.5) | 6¢ / 7¢ | 1¢ | $2.0k | tradeable |
| SpreadPáfos FC (-2.5) | 12¢ / 14¢ | 2¢ | $4.1k | tradeable |
| SpreadHNK Hajduk Split (-2.5) | 1¢ / 2¢ | 1¢ | $141 | tradeable |
| 0.925 | 331 | 0.924 | −0.001 |
Buy every favorite priced ≥ 70c, net of ~2c cost, significance clustered by fixture. In Soccer moneylines it comes to +5.70c per $1 (t = 1.36) — across all market types, −0.64c (t = 0.82). Null after cost — no free structural edge here either.
| market type | bets | fixtures | net edge | t (clustered) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 36 | 36 | +5.70c | 1.36 |
| Totals | 530 | 288 | −1.26c | 0.44 |
| Both teams to score | — | — | — | — |
| Spread | — | — | — | — |
| All types | 571 | 290 | −0.64c | 0.82 |
“—” means fewer than 8 favorites of that type — too thin to test. A real edge would need net > 0 andt > ~2.5 in a type that isn't just near-certain totals, and would have to survive out-of-sample.
