MLB · Starting Pitcher · Philadelphia Phillies
6' 4", 195 lbs · age 36 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 0.0499 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PHI | 16 | 16 | 100.0 | 66 | 24 | 22 | 117 | 2.16 | 0.88 |
| 2025 | PHI | 24 | 24 | 149.7 | 107 | 45 | 33 | 195 | 2.71 | 0.94 |
| Strikeout | 30.8% | 30.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 11.1% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 0.1106 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0493 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0049 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0564 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .241 | .271 | .315 | 0.2712 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 380 | .241 | .271 | 112 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 585 | .261 | .270 | 111 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 787 | .254 | .263 | 113 |
| 2024 |
| PHI |
| 32 |
| 32 |
| 200.0 |
| 139 |
| 57 |
| 52 |
| 224 |
| 2.56 |
| 0.95 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
