MLB · Starting Pitcher · Philadelphia Phillies
6' 4", 235 lbs · age 33 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 0.0681 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PHI | 5 | 4 | 22.7 | 36 | 23 | 11 | 17 | 9.13 | 2.07 |
| 2025 | PHI | 34 | 21 | 123.7 | 132 | 56 | 42 | 86 | 4.08 | 1.41 |
| Strikeout | 14.8% | 18.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 19.1% | 14.9% | 14.0% | 0.1312 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0517 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0055 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.0688 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .448 | .325 | .315 | 0.3252 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 115 | .448 | .325 | 94 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 537 | .334 | .310 | 96 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 381 | .410 | .337 | 88 |
| 2024 |
| PHI |
| 19 |
| 15 |
| 83.7 |
| 107 |
| 66 |
| 37 |
| 58 |
| 7.10 |
| 1.72 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
