MLB · Starting Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
5' 10", 190 lbs · age 36 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 0.0558 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 18 | 18 | 101.7 | 86 | 28 | 28 | 90 | 2.48 | 1.12 |
| 2025 | STL | 32 | 32 | 180.7 | 185 | 86 | 38 | 201 | 4.28 | 1.23 |
| Strikeout | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 13.5% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 0.1200 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0531 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0052 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.0550 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .287 | .289 | .315 | 0.2890 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 408 | .287 | .289 | 106 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 749 | .311 | .292 | 102 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 669 | .290 | .277 | 107 |
| 2024 |
| STL |
| 28 |
| 28 |
| 166.3 |
| 142 |
| 71 |
| 39 |
| 203 |
| 3.84 |
| 1.09 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
