MLB · Second Baseman · Kansas City Royals
6' 1", 225 lbs · age 33 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 0.0649 | 145 |
| Strikeout | 22.5% | 21.9% | 22.9% | 0.0000 | 54 |
| Single | 12.2% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 0.1143 | 265 |
| Double | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 0.0483 | 1914 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0035 | 499 |
| Home run | 1.1% | 1.8% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .143 |
| 2024 | LAA | 97 | 325 | 28 | 55 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 81 | .169 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.7% |
| 0.0368 |
| 228 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .215 | .268 | .296 | 0.2678 |
|---|
