MLB · Starting Pitcher · Kansas City Royals
6' 6", 215 lbs · age 35 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 0.0561 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 21 | 21 | 132.3 | 117 | 53 | 38 | 104 | 3.60 | 1.17 |
| 2025 | KC | 31 | 31 | 172.7 | 166 | 74 | 45 | 126 | 3.86 | 1.22 |
| Strikeout | 19.4% | 20.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 13.1% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 0.1176 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.0550 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0060 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0566 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .304 | .291 | .315 | 0.2913 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 535 | .304 | .291 | 105 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 711 | .297 | .287 | 104 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 678 | .297 | .290 | 103 |
| 2024 |
| KC |
| 29 |
| 29 |
| 166.7 |
| 154 |
| 62 |
| 45 |
| 145 |
| 3.35 |
| 1.19 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
