MLB · First Baseman · Arizona Diamondbacks
5' 11", 202 lbs · age 35 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 0.0494 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ARI | 90 | 300 | 45 | 81 | 7 | 49 | 18 | 30 | .270 |
| 2025 | ARI | 38 | 115 | 12 | 31 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 15 | .270 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | WSH | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Strikeout | 9.4% | 11.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 17.9% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 0.1422 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0517 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0080 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 0.0506 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .309 | .302 | .303 | 0.3019 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 319 | .309 | .302 | 99 |
| 2025 | batter | 120 | .290 | .300 | 100 |
| 2024 | batter | 299 | .268 | .280 | 94 |
| 2024 |
| WSH |
| 96 |
| 269 |
| 21 |
| 66 |
| 1 |
| 30 |
| 19 |
| 31 |
| .245 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
