MLB · Relief Pitcher · Minnesota Twins
6' 0", 185 lbs · age 35 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 0.0576 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 15.8% | 19.8% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 14.9% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 0.1244 | 467 |
| Double | 8.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 0.0571 | 1332 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | pitcher | 114 | .359 | .300 | 100 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 131 | .311 | .299 | 100 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIN | 2 | 0 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| 2025 | BAL | 19 | 0 | 23.7 | 29 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 5.70 | 1.48 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0040 |
| 922 |
| Home run | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.0566 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .359 | .300 | .313 | 0.2998 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| BAL |
| 25 |
| 1 |
| 30.7 |
| 26 |
| 15 |
| 13 |
| 24 |
| 4.40 |
| 1.27 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
