MLB · First Baseman · Atlanta Braves
6' 3", 273 lbs · age 31 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 0.0513 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 26.6% | 25.9% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 12.2% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 0.1146 | 264 |
| Double | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0518 | 3226 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 312 | .305 | .311 | 104 |
| 2024 | batter | 421 | .299 | .299 | 100 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 7 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | .200 |
| 2025 | TEX | 112 | 289 | 34 | 66 | 17 | 49 | 17 | 83 | .228 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | PIT | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 3.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.2% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0028 |
| 383 |
| Home run | 5.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.0903 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .305 | .311 | .296 | 0.3109 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| PIT |
| 132 |
| 383 |
| 38 |
| 93 |
| 13 |
| 56 |
| 31 |
| 89 |
| .243 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
