MLB · Starting Pitcher · Toronto Blue Jays
6' 2", 200 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 0.0719 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TOR | 18 | 18 | 104.3 | 74 | 31 | 45 | 155 | 2.67 | 1.14 |
| 2025 | SD | 32 | 32 | 168.0 | 152 | 85 | 71 | 215 | 4.55 | 1.33 |
| Strikeout | 36.4% | 34.9% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 12.9% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 0.1173 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 0.0473 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0049 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 0.0471 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .259 | .288 | .315 | 0.2885 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 426 | .259 | .288 | 106 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 715 | .311 | .296 | 101 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 757 | .264 | .271 | 110 |
| 2024 |
| SD |
| 33 |
| 33 |
| 189.3 |
| 137 |
| 73 |
| 65 |
| 224 |
| 3.47 |
| 1.07 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
