MLB · Third Baseman · Kansas City Royals
6' 0", 195 lbs · age 33 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 0.9% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 0.0405 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 20.0% | 21.1% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 16.5% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 0.1305 | 264 |
| Double | 1.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 0.0515 | 3226 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 115 | .208 | .273 | 91 |
| 2024 | batter | 304 | .297 | .289 | 97 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .250 |
| 2025 | LAA | 57 | 114 | 13 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 23 | .202 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | LAA | 1 | 0 | 3.0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 1.33 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.2% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0036 |
| 383 |
| Home run | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 0.0470 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .208 | .273 | .296 | 0.2731 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| ARI |
| 111 |
| 288 |
| 41 |
| 80 |
| 3 |
| 28 |
| 15 |
| 48 |
| .278 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
