MLB · Catcher · Cincinnati Reds
5' 9", 215 lbs · age 33 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 1.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 0.0495 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CIN | 27 | 75 | 9 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 12 | .267 |
| 2025 | CIN | 94 | 282 | 30 | 67 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 39 | .238 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CIN | 3 | 0 | 4.0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6.75 | 2.25 |
| 2025 | CIN | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Strikeout | 15.8% | 18.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 18.4% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 0.1321 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0514 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0050 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.0630 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .299 | .301 | .303 | 0.3009 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 0.0647 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 3.4% | 17.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 41.4% | 15.4% | 14.0% | 0.1356 | 510 |
| Double | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0523 | 1194 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
| Home run | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0555 | 647 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .497 | .313 | .315 | 0.3134 |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 76 | .299 | .301 | 99 |
| 2026 | pitcher | 29 | .497 | .313 | 97 |
| 2025 | batter | 301 | .269 | .267 | 89 |
| 2024 | batter | 233 | .282 | .304 | 102 |
| 2024 |
| NYY |
| 74 |
| 209 |
| 26 |
| 45 |
| 8 |
| 28 |
| 20 |
| 41 |
| .215 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2024 |
| NYY |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 1.0 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 18.00 |
| 3.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
