MLB · Third Baseman · Los Angeles Dodgers
6' 0", 217 lbs · age 31 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 0.0723 | 145 |
| Strikeout | 23.1% | 22.1% | 22.9% | 0.0000 | 54 |
| Single | 10.6% | 12.4% | 14.0% | 0.1087 | 265 |
| Double | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0526 | 1914 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0038 | 499 |
| Home run | 2.7% | 2.7% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LAD | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .500 |
| 2024 | CHW | 73 | 232 | 25 | 46 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 59 | .198 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.7% |
| 0.0542 |
| 228 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .271 | .292 | .296 | 0.2916 |
|---|
