MLB · Left Fielder · Colorado Rockies
6' 1", 209 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 0.0548 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | COL | 68 | 231 | 35 | 64 | 16 | 43 | 14 | 61 | .277 |
| 2025 | COL | 135 | 434 | 62 | 117 | 24 | 68 | 22 | 110 | .270 |
| Strikeout | 24.3% | 23.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 13.5% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 0.1210 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0516 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0087 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.0968 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .367 | .333 | .303 | 0.3329 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 251 | .367 | .333 | 109 |
| 2025 | batter | 460 | .345 | .334 | 112 |
| 2024 | batter | 418 | .278 | .286 | 96 |
| 2024 |
| LAA |
| 124 |
| 392 |
| 48 |
| 86 |
| 14 |
| 49 |
| 21 |
| 114 |
| .219 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
