MLB · Shortstop · Boston Red Sox
5' 11", 195 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 0.0585 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 62 | 169 | 20 | 42 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 40 | .249 |
| 2025 | MIL | 68 | 126 | 19 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 7 | 32 | .270 |
| Strikeout | 21.9% | 21.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 11.5% | 12.9% | 14.0% | 0.1134 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 8.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0537 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0058 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0571 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .315 | .289 | .303 | 0.2886 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 183 | .315 | .289 | 95 |
| 2025 | batter | 135 | .325 | .299 | 100 |
| 2024 | batter | 142 | .264 | .294 | 99 |
| 2024 |
| MIL |
| 59 |
| 125 |
| 14 |
| 26 |
| 1 |
| 16 |
| 16 |
| 40 |
| .208 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
