MLB · Relief Pitcher · Colorado Rockies
6' 1", 219 lbs · age 36 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 14.0% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 0.0753 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 22.8% | 23.9% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 0.1232 | 467 |
| Double | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 0.0545 | 1332 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | pitcher | 114 | .385 | .316 | 95 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 242 | .334 | .304 | 98 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | COL | 3 | 0 | 4.3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10.38 | 1.62 |
| 2025 | ATL | 21 | 0 | 22.0 | 26 | 19 | 12 | 25 | 7.77 | 1.73 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0040 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.0588 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .385 | .316 | .313 | 0.3157 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| ATL |
| 58 |
| 0 |
| 54.3 |
| 55 |
| 35 |
| 18 |
| 66 |
| 5.80 |
| 1.34 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
