MLB · Relief Pitcher · Arizona Diamondbacks
6' 4", 230 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 5.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 0.0597 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 8.6% | 19.2% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 31.4% | 15.3% | 14.1% | 0.1342 | 467 |
| Double | 0.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 0.0513 | 1332 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | pitcher | 35 | .418 | .306 | 98 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 37 | .491 | .304 | 98 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ARI | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9.00 | 2.50 |
| 2025 | BOS | 6 | 0 | 7.7 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7.04 | 1.83 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 2.9% |
| 0.4% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0058 |
| 922 |
| Home run | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.0549 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .418 | .306 | .313 | 0.3058 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| BOS |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 4.7 |
| 9 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 13.50 |
| 2.14 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
