MLB · Third Baseman · Texas Rangers
5' 11", 200 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 0.0631 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 31.5% | 28.3% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 13.7% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 0.1225 | 264 |
| Double | 1.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 0.0514 | 3226 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0035 | 383 |
| Home run | 0.0% | 1.8% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 0.0691 | 181 |
| Strikeout |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 124 | .202 | .277 | 93 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 37 | .476 | .315 | 95 |
| 2024 | batter | 271 | .348 | .333 | 112 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TEX | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .000 |
| 2025 | MIN | 45 | 112 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 39 | .170 |
| 2.7% |
| 0.0369 |
| 179 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .202 | .277 | .296 | 0.2774 |
|---|
| 5.4% |
| 17.8% |
| 22.8% |
| 0.0000 |
| 86 |
| Single | 29.7% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 0.1337 | 467 |
|---|
| Double | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0530 | 1332 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0043 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.0546 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .476 | .315 | .313 | 0.3146 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| MIA |
| 71 |
| 232 |
| 30 |
| 64 |
| 11 |
| 39 |
| 30 |
| 55 |
| .276 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
