MLB · Relief Pitcher · Colorado Rockies
6' 0", 220 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 0.0671 | 166 |
| Strikeout | 6.0% | 17.7% | 22.9% | 0.0000 | 89 |
| Single | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.1225 | 392 |
| Double | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0536 | 1240 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | COL | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| 2025 | CLE | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6.75 | 3.00 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0052 |
| 2365 |
| Home run | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.0534 | 803 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .321 | .302 | .310 | 0.3017 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| HOU |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 11.0 |
| 11 |
| 8 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 6.55 |
| 1.45 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
