MLB · Center Fielder · Cincinnati Reds
6' 0", 205 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.9% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 0.0853 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CIN | 70 | 135 | 19 | 35 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 40 | .259 |
| 2025 | MIA | 106 | 307 | 29 | 72 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 77 | .235 |
| Strikeout | 25.3% | 24.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 15.8% | 14.7% | 14.0% | 0.1287 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0516 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0046 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 0.0507 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .328 | .321 | .303 | 0.3209 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 158 | .328 | .321 | 105 |
| 2025 | batter | 334 | .272 | .291 | 97 |
| 2024 | batter | 108 | .332 | .304 | 102 |
| 2024 |
| MIA |
| 43 |
| 91 |
| 15 |
| 23 |
| 3 |
| 18 |
| 8 |
| 36 |
| .253 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
