MLB · Catcher · Boston Red Sox
5' 10", 190 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.1% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 0.0807 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 48 | 125 | 14 | 34 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 35 | .272 |
| 2025 | BOS | 63 | 168 | 16 | 32 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 42 | .190 |
| Strikeout | 24.1% | 23.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 17.2% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 0.1337 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0520 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0047 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 0.0432 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .324 | .314 | .303 | 0.3143 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 145 | .324 | .314 | 103 |
| 2025 | batter | 187 | .229 | .272 | 91 |
| 2024 | batter | 485 | .327 | .313 | 105 |
| 2024 |
| BOS |
| 125 |
| 443 |
| 54 |
| 124 |
| 13 |
| 52 |
| 28 |
| 113 |
| .280 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
