MLB · Shortstop · Atlanta Braves
6' 1", 186 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 0.0586 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 26.5% | 24.2% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 5.9% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 0.1158 | 264 |
| Double | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0528 | 3226 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0041 | 383 |
| Home run | 0.0% | 2.4% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 4.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 0.0583 | 181 |
| Strikeout |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 34 | .165 | .279 | 93 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 25 | .298 | .295 | 101 |
| 2024 | batter | 51 | .244 | .287 | 97 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .500 |
| 2025 | ATL | 45 | 31 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 | .129 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ATL | 6 | 0 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3.00 | 1.17 |
| 2024 | ATL | 3 | 0 | 4.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.7% |
| 0.0475 |
| 179 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .165 | .279 | .296 | 0.2789 |
|---|
| 16.0% |
| 21.4% |
| 22.8% |
| 0.0000 |
| 86 |
| Single | 16.0% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 0.1247 | 467 |
|---|
| Double | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0525 | 1332 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0043 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.0552 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .298 | .295 | .313 | 0.2950 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| ATL |
| 37 |
| 46 |
| 8 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 13 |
| .196 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
