MLB · First Baseman · Kansas City Royals
6' 0", 223 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 0.0533 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 14.8% | 15.6% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 14.8% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 0.1278 | 264 |
| Double | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0530 | 3226 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 283 | .284 | .289 | 97 |
| 2024 | batter | 361 | .281 | .286 | 96 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | KC | 4 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | .500 |
| 2025 | BOS | 77 | 259 | 33 | 62 | 7 | 27 | 14 | 42 | .239 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.2% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0029 |
| 383 |
| Home run | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 0.0516 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .284 | .289 | .296 | 0.2885 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| OAK |
| 94 |
| 337 |
| 34 |
| 81 |
| 6 |
| 26 |
| 20 |
| 62 |
| .240 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
