MLB · First Baseman · Tampa Bay Rays
6' 0", 215 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.4% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 0.0891 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TB | 102 | 375 | 49 | 106 | 14 | 65 | 54 | 102 | .283 |
| 2025 | TB | 106 | 370 | 56 | 117 | 14 | 59 | 41 | 107 | .316 |
| Strikeout | 23.1% | 22.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 17.0% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 0.1401 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0511 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0038 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.0623 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .353 | .346 | .303 | 0.3464 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 441 | .353 | .346 | 114 |
| 2025 | batter | 419 | .378 | .348 | 117 |
| 2024 | batter | 143 | .317 | .308 | 103 |
| 2024 |
| TB |
| 44 |
| 128 |
| 22 |
| 30 |
| 6 |
| 14 |
| 12 |
| 32 |
| .234 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
