MLB · Third Baseman · New York Yankees
6' 0", 200 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 0.0688 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 20.7% | 20.5% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 17.4% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 0.1332 | 264 |
| Double | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0522 | 3226 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 121 | .284 | .299 | 100 |
| 2024 | batter | 324 | .288 | .297 | 100 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NYY | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .000 |
| 2025 | NYY | 34 | 107 | 17 | 26 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 25 | .243 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NYY | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 6.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0036 | 383 |
|---|
| Home run | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 0.0415 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .284 | .299 | .296 | 0.2993 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| NYY |
| 109 |
| 299 |
| 47 |
| 74 |
| 8 |
| 36 |
| 21 |
| 63 |
| .247 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
