MLB · Relief Pitcher · Cincinnati Reds
6' 2", 248 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.9% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 0.0772 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CIN | 26 | 0 | 27.0 | 17 | 10 | 16 | 32 | 3.33 | 1.22 |
| 2025 | CIN | 62 | 0 | 65.3 | 68 | 29 | 25 | 64 | 3.99 | 1.42 |
| Strikeout | 29.6% | 27.1% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 9.3% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 0.1155 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0510 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0055 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.0544 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .275 | .304 | .315 | 0.3037 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 108 | .275 | .304 | 100 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 279 | .307 | .297 | 101 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 350 | .340 | .311 | 96 |
| 2024 |
| CIN |
| 15 |
| 15 |
| 77.3 |
| 89 |
| 45 |
| 27 |
| 57 |
| 5.24 |
| 1.50 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
