MLB · Catcher · New York Mets
5' 10", 210 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 0.0691 | 136 |
| Strikeout | 18.4% | 19.2% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
| Single | 10.4% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 0.1133 | 264 |
| Double | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0517 | 3226 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 125 | .209 | .279 | 93 |
| 2024 | batter | 328 | .281 | .297 | 100 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NYM | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .200 |
| 2025 | LAD | 44 | 112 | 9 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 23 | .152 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0035 | 383 |
|---|
| Home run | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 0.0416 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .209 | .279 | .296 | 0.2792 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| TB |
| 112 |
| 290 |
| 27 |
| 66 |
| 3 |
| 31 |
| 34 |
| 88 |
| .228 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
