MLB · Starting Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
6' 3", 190 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 0.0612 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 20.3% | 22.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 20.3% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 0.1281 | 510 |
| Double | 7.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0538 | 1194 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 64 | .350 | .304 | 100 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 350 | .327 | .312 | 95 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 3 | 3 | 14.0 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 3.21 | 1.64 |
| 2024 | LAA | 16 | 16 | 79.7 | 85 | 45 | 35 | 81 | 5.08 | 1.51 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0053 |
| 4400 |
| Home run | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.0554 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .350 | .304 | .315 | 0.3038 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
