MLB · Starting Pitcher · St. Louis Cardinals
6' 4", 215 lbs · age 26 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 0.0643 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | STL | 20 | 20 | 99.0 | 112 | 57 | 38 | 95 | 5.18 | 1.52 |
| 2025 | STL | 29 | 29 | 151.7 | 158 | 71 | 40 | 122 | 4.21 | 1.31 |
| Strikeout | 21.8% | 22.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 17.4% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 0.1362 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0506 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0052 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.0650 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .355 | .321 | .315 | 0.3212 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 436 | .355 | .321 | 95 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 645 | .316 | .295 | 101 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 353 | .310 | .293 | 101 |
| 2024 |
| STL |
| 60 |
| 6 |
| 86.0 |
| 81 |
| 42 |
| 28 |
| 76 |
| 4.40 |
| 1.27 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
