MLB · Starting Pitcher · Tampa Bay Rays
6' 3", 210 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 0.0623 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TB | 19 | 19 | 96.0 | 76 | 33 | 33 | 88 | 3.09 | 1.14 |
| 2025 | TB | 1 | 1 | 2.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Strikeout | 22.3% | 22.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 13.4% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 0.1200 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0504 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0052 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.0493 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .268 | .287 | .315 | 0.2872 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
