MLB · Left Fielder · Minnesota Twins
6' 3", 223 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 12.2% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 0.0819 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIN | 86 | 272 | 47 | 80 | 8 | 38 | 36 | 54 | .294 |
| 2025 | MIN | 142 | 503 | 62 | 126 | 17 | 60 | 53 | 122 | .250 |
| Strikeout | 17.4% | 17.7% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 16.7% | 15.5% | 14.0% | 0.1363 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0532 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.0545 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .364 | .331 | .303 | 0.3311 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 311 | .364 | .331 | 109 |
| 2025 | batter | 564 | .314 | .312 | 104 |
| 2024 | batter | 399 | .333 | .325 | 109 |
| 2024 |
| MIN |
| 112 |
| 355 |
| 59 |
| 92 |
| 15 |
| 52 |
| 40 |
| 89 |
| .259 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
