MLB · Relief Pitcher · New York Mets
6' 4", 212 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 11.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 0.0700 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 23.5% | 23.1% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 5.9% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 0.1180 | 510 |
| Double | 8.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0531 | 1194 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
| Home run | 2.9% | 2.9% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NYM | 7 | 0 | 8.3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4.32 | 1.20 |
| 2025 | TB | 2 | 0 | 4.3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2.08 | 0.69 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.9% |
| 0.0576 |
| 647 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .302 | .304 | .315 | 0.3040 |
|---|
