MLB · Starting Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
6' 6", 275 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 15.3% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 0.0820 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 24.7% | 25.0% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 9.4% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 0.1123 | 467 |
| Double | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 0.0500 | 1332 |
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0038 | 922 |
| Home run | 3.5% | 2.8% |
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 1 | 0 | 3.7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9.82 | 1.91 |
| 2025 | PIT | 9 | 9 | 40.3 | 26 | 16 | 23 | 42 | 3.57 | 1.21 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| 2.7% |
| 0.0570 |
| 549 |
| Adjusted wOBA | .289 | .305 | .313 | 0.3050 |
|---|
