MLB · Right Fielder · Chicago Cubs
5' 11", 182 lbs · age 31 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 0.0792 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CHC | 87 | 326 | 54 | 87 | 17 | 54 | 44 | 96 | .267 |
| 2025 | CHC | 151 | 571 | 75 | 140 | 32 | 103 | 71 | 164 | .245 |
| Strikeout | 25.7% | 24.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 14.5% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 0.1253 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0516 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0040 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.0794 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .354 | .339 | .303 | 0.3394 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 373 | .354 | .339 | 111 |
| 2025 | batter | 650 | .341 | .334 | 112 |
| 2024 | batter | 582 | .362 | .343 | 115 |
| 2024 |
| CHC |
| 132 |
| 512 |
| 74 |
| 145 |
| 21 |
| 73 |
| 63 |
| 160 |
| .283 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
