MLB · Catcher · Minnesota Twins
6' 2", 235 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 14.9% | 13.1% | 9.8% | 0.0906 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIN | 45 | 152 | 29 | 43 | 9 | 32 | 26 | 30 | .283 |
| 2025 | MIN | 119 | 406 | 47 | 108 | 9 | 47 | 50 | 91 | .266 |
| Strikeout | 16.6% | 17.0% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 13.3% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 0.1202 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0519 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0059 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.0775 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .390 | .346 | .303 | 0.3460 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 181 | .390 | .346 | 113 |
| 2025 | batter | 463 | .331 | .316 | 106 |
| 2024 | batter | 464 | .313 | .311 | 104 |
| 2024 |
| MIN |
| 122 |
| 412 |
| 56 |
| 93 |
| 21 |
| 64 |
| 32 |
| 94 |
| .226 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
