MLB · Left Fielder · Boston Red Sox
6' 0", 205 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 0.0601 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 95 | 367 | 44 | 71 | 13 | 52 | 28 | 119 | .193 |
| 2025 | BOS | 157 | 620 | 86 | 159 | 16 | 84 | 60 | 169 | .256 |
| Strikeout | 29.3% | 27.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 11.1% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 0.1075 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0495 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0074 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.0623 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .258 | .287 | .303 | 0.2868 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 406 | .258 | .287 | 94 |
| 2025 | batter | 694 | .332 | .316 | 106 |
| 2024 | batter | 733 | .354 | .327 | 110 |
| 2024 |
| BOS |
| 159 |
| 668 |
| 110 |
| 190 |
| 20 |
| 74 |
| 54 |
| 159 |
| .284 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
