MLB · Shortstop · Miami Marlins
5' 10", 185 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 0.0507 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIA | 100 | 400 | 62 | 132 | 9 | 46 | 22 | 60 | .330 |
| 2025 | MIA | 143 | 544 | 66 | 134 | 15 | 77 | 44 | 82 | .246 |
| Strikeout | 13.9% | 14.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 20.8% | 18.4% | 14.0% | 0.1619 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.0540 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0120 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.0483 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .365 | .327 | .303 | 0.3269 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 433 | .365 | .327 | 107 |
| 2025 | batter | 592 | .293 | .300 | 101 |
| 2024 | batter | 431 | .301 | .294 | 99 |
| 2024 |
| MIA |
| 115 |
| 396 |
| 49 |
| 109 |
| 6 |
| 39 |
| 25 |
| 74 |
| .275 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
