MLB · Relief Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
6' 5", 224 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 0.0601 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 6.1% | 18.4% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 21.2% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 0.1276 | 467 |
| Double | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0531 | 1332 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | pitcher | 33 | .548 | .310 | 96 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 72 | .318 | .299 | 100 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27.00 | 3.00 |
| 2025 | CIN | 5 | 0 | 6.7 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10.80 | 2.25 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.0% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0043 |
| 922 |
| Home run | 12.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.0649 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .548 | .310 | .313 | 0.3101 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| WSH |
| 16 |
| 0 |
| 17.7 |
| 17 |
| 9 |
| 5 |
| 14 |
| 4.58 |
| 1.25 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
