MLB · Left Fielder · Cincinnati Reds
6' 2", 205 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.5% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 0.0895 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CIN | 74 | 267 | 39 | 63 | 17 | 44 | 41 | 65 | .236 |
| 2025 | ATH | 98 | 307 | 48 | 65 | 14 | 39 | 36 | 91 | .212 |
| Strikeout | 20.9% | 20.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 10.9% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 0.1080 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0509 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 0.0893 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .348 | .343 | .303 | 0.3429 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 311 | .348 | .343 | 112 |
| 2025 | batter | 342 | .300 | .302 | 101 |
| 2024 | batter | 640 | .327 | .309 | 104 |
| 2024 |
| OAK |
| 159 |
| 572 |
| 74 |
| 139 |
| 20 |
| 60 |
| 67 |
| 125 |
| .243 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
