MLB · Starting Pitcher · Minnesota Twins
6' 2", 220 lbs · age 25 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 0.0658 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIN | 20 | 20 | 114.7 | 94 | 47 | 46 | 129 | 3.69 | 1.22 |
| 2025 | MIN | 27 | 27 | 142.7 | 131 | 80 | 56 | 127 | 5.05 | 1.31 |
| Strikeout | 26.9% | 27.2% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 11.7% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 0.1122 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0523 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0048 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.0619 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .297 | .297 | .315 | 0.2970 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 480 | .297 | .297 | 103 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 604 | .312 | .299 | 100 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 574 | .305 | .293 | 102 |
| 2024 |
| TB |
| 25 |
| 25 |
| 138.0 |
| 122 |
| 63 |
| 47 |
| 154 |
| 4.11 |
| 1.22 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
