MLB · Left Fielder · Cleveland Guardians
5' 11", 200 lbs · age 24 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 0.0488 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CLE | 67 | 230 | 28 | 54 | 11 | 33 | 7 | 53 | .235 |
| 2025 | CLE | 139 | 446 | 56 | 100 | 11 | 45 | 23 | 110 | .224 |
| Strikeout | 21.8% | 21.4% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 12.8% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 0.1170 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0517 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0056 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.0759 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .300 | .299 | .303 | 0.2989 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 243 | .300 | .299 | 98 |
| 2025 | batter | 479 | .272 | .277 | 93 |
| 2024 | batter | 168 | .280 | .294 | 99 |
| 2024 |
| CLE |
| 43 |
| 151 |
| 16 |
| 35 |
| 3 |
| 11 |
| 15 |
| 33 |
| .232 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
