MLB · First Baseman · Miami Marlins
6' 2", 215 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 0.0733 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIA | 79 | 297 | 36 | 68 | 12 | 43 | 30 | 110 | .229 |
| 2025 | MIA | 117 | 399 | 61 | 115 | 25 | 73 | 48 | 125 | .288 |
| Strikeout | 33.0% | 30.8% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 10.8% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 0.1071 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0524 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0079 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 0.0664 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .316 | .307 | .303 | 0.3071 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 333 | .316 | .307 | 101 |
| 2025 | batter | 453 | .383 | .360 | 120 |
| 2024 | batter | 209 | .263 | .277 | 93 |
| 2024 |
| MIA |
| 69 |
| 192 |
| 15 |
| 40 |
| 3 |
| 24 |
| 13 |
| 74 |
| .208 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
