MLB · Relief Pitcher · Cincinnati Reds
6' 3", 216 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 31.0% | 14.7% | 9.8% | 0.1015 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CIN | 7 | 0 | 7.3 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 8.59 | 2.86 |
| 2025 | PIT | 31 | 0 | 38.0 | 34 | 20 | 18 | 34 | 4.74 | 1.37 |
| Strikeout | 16.7% | 20.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 14.3% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.1226 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0507 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0571 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .417 | .337 | .315 | 0.3371 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 42 | .417 | .337 | 90 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 167 | .301 | .302 | 99 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 243 | .313 | .318 | 94 |
| 2024 |
| PIT |
| 51 |
| 0 |
| 54.7 |
| 51 |
| 24 |
| 31 |
| 55 |
| 3.95 |
| 1.50 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
