MLB · Starting Pitcher · Los Angeles Dodgers
6' 2", 220 lbs · age 29 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 0.0684 | 181 |
| Strikeout | 22.7% | 23.7% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 86 |
| Single | 11.9% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 0.1182 | 467 |
| Double | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0519 | 1332 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | pitcher | 185 | .347 | .307 | 97 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 286 | .301 | .286 | 104 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LAD | 2 | 0 | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9.00 | 1.60 |
| 2025 | LAD | 10 | 7 | 42.3 | 40 | 23 | 19 | 42 | 4.89 | 1.39 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 0.5% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0048 |
| 922 |
| Home run | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 0.0640 | 549 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .347 | .307 | .313 | 0.3072 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| LAD |
| 15 |
| 12 |
| 69.0 |
| 58 |
| 28 |
| 18 |
| 69 |
| 3.65 |
| 1.10 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
