MLB · Relief Pitcher · Chicago Cubs
6' 3", 220 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 0.0601 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 16.0% | 19.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 26.0% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 0.1320 | 510 |
| Double | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0524 | 1194 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 50 | .416 | .306 | 100 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 66 | .397 | .299 | 100 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 211 | .370 | .312 | 95 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CHC | 3 | 2 | 7.3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 13.50 | 2.05 |
| 2025 | CHC | 8 | 0 | 14.3 | 24 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 6.28 | 1.74 |
| Triple |
|---|
| 2.0% |
| 0.4% |
| 0.3% |
| 0.0056 |
| 4400 |
| Home run | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0563 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .416 | .306 | .315 | 0.3064 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| CHC |
| 11 |
| 10 |
| 46.0 |
| 55 |
| 28 |
| 20 |
| 42 |
| 5.48 |
| 1.63 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
