MLB · Starting Pitcher · San Francisco Giants
6' 3", 225 lbs · age 25 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.0% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 0.0729 | 162 |
| Strikeout | 13.0% | 19.1% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
| Single | 15.2% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 0.1233 | 510 |
| Double | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0505 | 1194 |
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 46 | .294 | .309 | 99 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 102 | .369 | .312 | 96 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SF | 2 | 2 | 10.7 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3.37 | 1.41 |
| 2025 | SF | 5 | 5 | 23.3 | 22 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 5.01 | 1.46 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0053 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0565 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .294 | .309 | .315 | 0.3085 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
