MLB · Third Baseman · Minnesota Twins
6' 0", 205 lbs · age 25 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 0.0574 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIN | 100 | 371 | 46 | 92 | 15 | 56 | 28 | 66 | .248 |
| 2025 | MIN | 139 | 487 | 50 | 115 | 16 | 64 | 31 | 92 | .236 |
| Strikeout | 16.4% | 16.6% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 14.7% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 0.1265 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0510 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0074 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.0689 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .314 | .311 | .303 | 0.3111 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 402 | .314 | .311 | 102 |
| 2025 | batter | 527 | .284 | .298 | 100 |
| 2024 | batter | 183 | .251 | .279 | 94 |
| 2024 |
| MIN |
| 50 |
| 172 |
| 9 |
| 38 |
| 3 |
| 27 |
| 11 |
| 27 |
| .221 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
